12.12.12 is all hype; India set to shine at 2030

There has been some hype ~ tomorrow 12.12.12 – a day of the century ~ would not come again ~ I mean an occurrence like this and all… we try to write and chose the format convenient – normally it should be 12-12-2012 or 12th Dec 2012 ~ when looked so, does it not look too ordinary.. most days are just like any other day and may not contain anything.. Today  We remember Mahakavi Bharathiyar…. tomorrow fans of tinseldom would celebrate that of Rajnikant.. -  2030 could be year, We all Indians love to think of !!

Yes,  Year 2030 is going to be good ~ not my words – year 2030 certainly has something to offer for India. It might be hard to visualize or believe in today's messy, gridlocked, turmoil-ridden subcontinent, but the US intelligence community in a new report released on Monday says by 2030, a surging India, along with decelerating China, will straddle global commerce and dominate the world economy amid the gradual decline of the west.

According to the report, they won't be doing it in tandem. China has powered ahead, but India's turn will come after 2015 even as China's fortunes start receding. But by 2030, Asia, fueled by India as much as China, "will be well on its way to returning to being the world's powerhouse, just as it was before 1500," says "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds," a report issued by theUS National Intelligence Council, the brains' trust of the US intelligence community. Pakistan will be a no-show and may not even exist.

Today, India is not exactly doing great, dragged down by subdued manufacturing, India’s economic growth slid to 5.3 percent in the September quarter,  its lowest levels in three years. Yet, the  US intelligence report released on Monday had a sunshiny forecast: A surging India, along with decelerating China, will dominate the world economy amid the gradual decline of the West by 2030.  “As the world’s largest economic power, China is expected to remain ahead of India, but the gap could begin to close by 2030,” said the “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds” report issued by the US National Intelligence Council, the brains trust of the US intelligence community

India is currently struggling with high inflation and high interest rates, coupled with a wide fiscal deficit, weak currency, and uncertain policy environment, which have hit both consumption and investment. Reforms may restore some of India’s growth but economists say India needs to make investments now in ports, roads, airports, railways and encourage the manufacturing sector. India’s current growth is capital-intensive, fueled largely by the growth in services like IT and high-end manufacturing.

Compare the number of Indians employed in the formal manufacturing sector with that in China. There is a multiple difference — 7 million in India and 100 million in China. India’s services sector is just not going to be able to employ that many Indians.  Economic philosopher Amartya Sen, writing recently in the New York Review of Books, tempered the excitement in India and abroad centred around speculation that India’s economic growth rate may soon catch up with – and perhaps even surpass  - China’s. 

Sen states that India very nearly went into default in 1990. That crisis, which left India pawning its family jewels, effectively changed its economic destiny, and its record of growth since then, although not quite as spectacular as China’s, has captured the imagination of the investing world. To the point where animal menagerie metaphors revolving around the Ch-India theme – ‘Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon’, ‘The Panda and the Peacock’, abound in media narratives. Several factors may account for this sea-change in perceptions on the economic fortunes of both India and China. Consultant Rob Salkowitz, author of Young World Rising, argues that India’s youth demographics have the potential to beat out China’s. “Demographically, India and China are starting from a comparable place, but moving in opposite directions,” he writes. China’s “mad dash toward prosperity” is driven by a fast-closing demographic window: they are desperately trying to get rich before they get old. India’s workforce, on the other hand, is projected to remain consistently young through the middle of the century.

So future does appear ‘Shining and glittering’ as we can dream of 2030 dawning great things for India.  There is one area, where India has already surged ahead – that is Gold purchase.  World's largest consumers India and China are to provide gold's bull run a smooth sailing, 13th in a row, to next year, according to WGC MD Marcus Grubb. Global gold demand in 2013 should be led by further strength in Chinese demand and a recovery in India, helping the precious metal continue its bull run into its 13th year, he said in an interview.

Global gold demand is likely to fall by around 5 to 7% in 2012 to around 4,100 tonnes. The world's total consumer gold demand in the first three quarters of the year fell 7% from a year earlier to 3,185.5 tonnes.  So our desire to buy the yellow metal would outsmart everybody

With regards – S. Sampathkumar

Largely influenced and reproduced by the article in www.firstpost.com.