After losing the toss in
the second test against Australia in Perth Black Caps' captain Brendon McCullum
took his record at the toss in test cricket to won 10, lost 16, but is the Kiwi
captain really that unlucky? Superstitious
Black Caps fans concerned there might be a curse on the skipper can rest easy.
Despite his unfavourable record in tests, McCullum's record in all formats of
international cricket is actually pretty close to 50-50.
When a coin
is tossed up, there are only two possible outcomes – it can be Head or a Tail
[crooked possibility of coin standing up removed] - the possibility of somebody determining the
outcome, scientifically, is not probable
– yet when it occurs in sequence by chance, some Captains are touted as
intelligent when calling them ‘lucky’ would have been more appropriate.
When we toss
up, there can be a head or a tail – so the possibility of your calling it right
is 50% ? - if that logic were to be correct,
then you should be calling right one out of 2 – that does not happen – some
Captains lose tosses in row. That takes
us to the ‘probability theory’ -
Probabilities are written as numbers between zero and one. A probability
of one means that the event is certain. If you toss a coin, it will come up a
head or a tail. So there is a probability of one that either of these will
happen. A probability of zero means that an event is impossible. If you toss a
coin, you cannot get both a head and a tail at the same time, so this has zero
probability. Anything that can happen but is not certain is written as a number
less than one.
In 1979 when Pak toured
India and when Asif Iqbal was the captain – in the last test at Calcutta, there were allegations that Asif told the
Indian captain Gundapa Vishwanath that he had won the toss and mildmannered
Vishy lacked the gumption to contest him and accepted his words !!! ~ again in
2011, in that World Cup finals with Ravi Shastri as commentator; match referee
Jeff Crowe, Dhoni tossed the
coin and Ravi Shastri started querying Dhoni on what he intends doing. It was clear to most that Sanga had called
tails and lost it but Sanga claimed otherwise and Jeff Crowe said ‘he had not
heard it in the din’. .. … and there was
re-toss !!! If not others, Sangakkara certainly knew what it really was !
At Nagpur,
India won the Series by 124 runs. Ravi Ashwin waltzed away to his fourth
10-wicket match haul, Amit Mishra - like he did in Mohali - broke the big
partnership by getting Amla and then took du Plessis out in the last exchanges
before tea. The resumption of the chase was stillborn when Ashwin took out Dean
Elgar and AB de Villiers in the first 10 overs of the day. Surprisingly,
Ravindra Jadeja went wicketless in 25 overs, but it wasn't as if he didn't look
like getting one.
A lethal
cocktail of an underprepared pitch and their own recent regression as a
tough-nut outfit in Test cricket explains South Africa’s seemingly imminent
fall from grace in India. The wheel spun full circle on a violent day two of
the third Test match on Thursday, with 20 wickets tumbling and SA succumbing to
meagre 79. An era ended today when SA predictably succumbed by 124 runs in the third
Test, ensuring series defeat – their first in 16 away ones since 2006. This time
they batted a good bit longer (89.5 overs) than any of the three prior ones had
lasted. A total of 185 may not look too flash on
paper, but that is on a Test where
Murali Vijay’s 40 remained the highest score.
Getting back to toss, just
as we have special coin in Freedom Series, on 14th Nov 2013, Test no. 2102 commenced at Wankhede
and it started with a sigh of disappointment ………….. MS Dhoni won the toss and
said, he would bowl first… it was no
ordinary toss – a toss with a special gold coin engraved Sachin and SRT 200 ….
As the decision was heard, crowds expressed its disapproval…………. I also thought that effectively now Sachin had
only one last Test innings…
English
cricket will feature a major change to the tradition of the pre-match coin toss
to decide which team bats first in 2016, the England and Wales Cricket Board
announced on Thursday. In both tiers of next season's County Championship, the
visiting captain will be given the option of bowling first which, if he chooses
to take, will see the toss rendered unnecessary.
A coin will
only be spun, as has been cricket's tradition for over a hundred years, if the
visiting captain rejects the chance to bowl first. The proposal was passed, on
the basis of a one-year trial, at an ECB board meeting at Lord's on Thursday
and cricket committee head Peter Wright said the move came about partly as a
result of concerns about the development of English spinners. Rather than home
teams now winning the toss and unleashing a seam-heavy attack on a pitch which
makes batting hazardous, the away captain will now have the option to
intervene.
So an altogether new
probability in the ‘toss’ – which perhaps You and I never thought, would happen
!!
With regards – S.
Sampathkumar
27th Nov. 2015.
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